Mathematical Football Predictions
What is mathematical prediction?
Mathematical football prediction (also called Algoritmic football prediction) is a prediction formulated by analysing the past performances of the two teams. Generally, these predictions take into account several factors, including:
- Recent and overall performance
- Performance in matches against teams of similar strength
- Recent and overall scoring and defending records
- Home/away scoring and defending records of the home/away team
- Results in head-to-head (H2H) matches
Predictive algorithms calculate the most likely outcome of a match by weighing these factors. At HuhSports, we use 4 different proprietary algorithms to formulate a well-balanced prediction and maximize our success rate.
How can you take advantage of mathematical football prediction?
Mathematical predictions offer you a good base for creating your own predictions. You can make a final call by re-calibrating the mathematical predictions by considering any important pre-match or live conditions you may be aware of. Or you can use them as a reference point to verify your own predictions.
The predictive success rate of a single algorithm is usually around 50%. With a four-algorithm system, we improve the success rate to 75%. But even this success rate may not be enough to win regularly in betting. You should aim to increase this figure to 80% by carefully selecting the matches and predictions, or by combining mathematical predictions with your own predictions. There onwards, you can become one of those rare punters who regularly wins in betting.
How do we review and share the mathematical predictions?
Firstly, we identify the common predictions generated by our 4 proprietary algorithms, in terms of match result and goal line. These raw predictions are then reviewed by our experts.
Expert reviews: Pre-match conditions, such as injured or suspended players, tactical formations, line-ups, fixture intensity, motivational factors, field and weather conditions and referee profiles that may affect the match outcome. Our experts eliminate the algorithmic black spots and use computer-aided analysis to re-calibrate the mathematical football predictions based on the pre-match conditions.
We share the expert-reviewed mathematical predictions as our preferred picks.
HOW DO BOOKMAKERS DETERMINE THE BETTING ODDS?
They convert the probability of different game outcomes into betting odds. For example, if there is a 50% probability that there will be more than 2 goals in a match, they offer 1-to-1.80 for the more than 2 goals bet. Of course, if the system was fair, the odds would be 1-to-2.00. Simply put, the difference between what is fair and what is offered makes up the profit margin of the bookmaker. Different game outcomes are determined at three levels:
These predictions are made based by analysing the past performances of the two teams. Generally, these predictions take five factors into account:
- General scoring profile of the two teams throughout the current season (average number of goals scored per game, average number of goals conceded per game, number of games in which they did not score, number of games in which they did not concede a goal, etc.)
- Home/away scoring performance of the home/away team
- Recent scoring performances of the two teams (in the last 6 or 8 matches)
- Performance of the home/away team in home/away matches with teams that are stronger/weaker according to the league rankings
- Results of the previous matches between the two teams
Algorithms calculate the most likely outcome of the match by taking into account these five factors using different weights. In a nutshell, the mathematical prediction is the computerized version of the predictions made by punters who analyse the detailed scoreboards and past matches. And naturally the computerized version is more accurate because humans have limited mathematical processing capability in comparison to computers.
Why do different algorithms result in different predictions? Because the factors used in the algorithm or the weights assigned to each factor may vary. Yet, different algorithms may also draw the same conclusion. This means that the two teams being analysed have very clear playing characteristics. For example, if both teams play in a fiercely attacking style, all algorithms will predict a match with multiple goals. Obviously, predictions common to all algorithms become our preferred tips.