What is mathematical football prediction?

Let us explain it briefly. And while we’ve got your attention, we recommend that you spend a
few minutes to read through this entire section so you can get the most of these predictions.

We all bet. As you know, watching sporting events is more exciting when you bet. And, betting is
more fun when you win. But the vast majority of punters lose serious money in the long run.
Because that’s how the system is set up: bookmakers set the odds in a way to distribute only a
portion of the total amount of bets placed.

How do bookmakers determine the betting odds?

They convert the probability of different game outcomes into betting odds. For example, if there is a 50% probability that there will be more than 2 goals in a match, they offer 1-to-1.80 for the more than 2 goals bet. Of course, if the system was fair, the odds would be 1-to-2.00. Simply put, the difference between what is fair and what is offered makes up the profit margin of the bookmaker.

Different game outcomes are determined at three levels:

Mathematical predictions

These predictions are made based by analysing the past performances of the two teams. Generally, these predictions take five factors into account:

  1. General scoring profile of the two teams throughout the current season (average number of goals scored per game, average number of goals conceded per game, number of games in which they did not score, number of games in which they did not concede a goal, etc.)
  2. Home/away scoring performance of the home/away team
  3. Recent scoring performances of the two teams (in the last 6 or 8 matches)
  4. Performance of the home/away team in home/away matches with teams that are
    stronger/weaker according to the league rankings
  5. Results of the previous matches between the two teams

Algorithms calculate the most likely outcome of the match by taking into account these five factors using different weights. In a nutshell, the mathematical prediction is the computerized version of the predictions made by punters who analyse the detailed scoreboards and past matches. And naturally the computerized version is more accurate because humans have limited mathematical processing capability in comparison to computers.

Why do different algorithms result in different predictions? Because the factors used in the algorithm or the weights assigned to each factor may vary. Yet, different algorithms may also draw the same conclusion. This means that the two teams being
analysed have very clear playing characteristics. For example, if both teams play in a fiercely attacking style, all algorithms will predict a match with multiple goals. Obviously, predictions
common to all algorithms become our preferred tips. 

Pre-match conditions

Mathematical predictions tell us the game result if history repeats itself. But history doesn’t
always repeat itself because the circumstances change. Missing players, tactical formations, line-ups, fixture intensity, motivational factors, field and weather conditions, referee profiles are the most common pre-match conditions that may affect the game outcome. Sports analysts re-calibrate the mathematical predictions based on the pre-match conditions – again using computer analysis.

Live match conditions

Pre-match predictions corresponds to the most likely game outcome if the two teams play under expected conditions – and with their normal rhythms. But football is a game of surprises. Unexpected player (especially goalkeeper) performances, red cards, individual errors (player or referee) or pure luck may affect the outcome of the game.  

Pre-match predictions offer a reference point that needs to be re-calibrated based on the live match conditions. However, if there is no surprise factor strong enough to influence the game outcome, the game would result in a close similarity to the pre-match prediction.

How can you take advantage of the mathematical predictions?

Mathematical predictions offer you a good base for creating your own predictions. You can make a final call by re-calibrating the mathematical predictions by considering any important pre-match or live conditions you may be aware of. Or you can use them as a reference point to verify
your own predictions.

The predictive success rate of a single algorithm is usually around 50%. With a four-algorithm system, we improve the success rate to 75%. But even this success rate may not be enough to win regularly in betting. You should aim to increase this figure to 80% by carefully selecting the matches and predictions, or by combining mathematical predictions with your own predictions. There onwards, you can become one of those rare punters who regularly wins in betting.

Firstly, we share the result predictions made by 4 different algorithms. You may select the prediction that resonates best with your own assessment. In addition, we identify the commonalities across the 4 predictions, in terms of winning side and scoring, and share these as our preferred tips. You can find below the descriptions of the abbreviations used.

In which format do we share the mathematical predictions?